File:Ultimatereserveoilprojections.gif
Original file (996 × 715 pixels, file size: 46 KB, MIME type: image/gif)
Captions
Summary
[edit]DescriptionUltimatereserveoilprojections.gif |
English: World Oil production - history and projections
Projections are based on different publicly offered world ultimate reserve estimates, projecting current 2% growth smoothly into a 5% decline curve by linear interpolation. The transition period is determined to reach the expected ultimate reserves over the long term. Campbell may be considered a pessimist, discounting the idea that higher prices will increase available reserves or production. The USGS as optimists with their 5%-confidence curve higher than most all other estimates and their 50%-confidence curve based on averaging their 95%-confidence low curve and 5%-confidence high curve. I acccept Harper's estimate with a 2015 peak as a nice middle between Campbell and the USGS 50%. This graph does not consider political and technical limitations on oil production, but simply assumes the less oil that's left, the slower it will be extracted. A 5% annual decline curve (having 5% less oil available next year as this year) would be a tough economic problem. This is NOT the graph peak oil advocates want you to see, but probably also NOT the graph that Cornucopians are interested in promoting either. My intent is to suggest that whatever the ultimate reserves are, our era of exponential growth in oil production is ending and we're heading into an unknown age of higher energy prices and likely economic contraction. |
Date | 27 February 2005 (original upload date) |
Source | Own work |
Author | Tomruen at English Wikipedia |
Licensing
[edit]Public domainPublic domainfalsefalse |
This work has been released into the public domain by its author, Tomruen at English Wikipedia. This applies worldwide. In some countries this may not be legally possible; if so: Tomruen grants anyone the right to use this work for any purpose, without any conditions, unless such conditions are required by law.Public domainPublic domainfalsefalse |
Original upload log
[edit]- 2005-02-27 07:48 Tomruen 996×715 (46742 bytes) World Oil production - histort and projections by Hubble Model
File history
Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time.
Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
current | 10:07, 19 October 2011 | 996 × 715 (46 KB) | BotMultichillT (talk | contribs) | {{BotMoveToCommons|en.wikipedia|year={{subst:CURRENTYEAR}}|month={{subst:CURRENTMONTHNAME}}|day={{subst:CURRENTDAY}}}} == {{int:filedesc}} == {{Information |description={{en|1=World Oil production - history and projections Projections are based on diffe |
You cannot overwrite this file.
File usage on Commons
There are no pages that use this file.
Metadata
This file contains additional information such as Exif metadata which may have been added by the digital camera, scanner, or software program used to create or digitize it. If the file has been modified from its original state, some details such as the timestamp may not fully reflect those of the original file. The timestamp is only as accurate as the clock in the camera, and it may be completely wrong.
GIF file comment | Creator: PolyView® Version 4.00 by Polybytes |
---|